The best case scenario for the professional nail care market is a forecast CAGR of 3.9% through 2025.

Getting the Professional Nail Care Industry Back on Track

Unlike other professional beauty segments, the professional nail care market may still see a spike in sales thanks to nail polishes and care categories, which consumers turn to for a treat and/or to maintain or establish a part of their routine they can still control. Our recently published Professional Nail Care: Post-COVID Forecast report forecasts a CAGR of 3.9%  through 2025 in the best-case scenario compared to the previously projected CAGR of 3.0% through 2023. Gels, the leading category, is expected to be the best-performing category with a CAGR higher than the market average in all three scenario forecasts. Nail polishes, the worst-performing category pre-COVID-19, is expected to emerge as the second best-performing category even in the worst-case scenario.

As countries begin to ease up on their lockdowns and move toward the “new normal,” it is interesting to observe key industry changes. Marketers are working closely with salons (including nail bars), spas, and nail technicians to offer resources and guidelines to reopen their businesses with minimal difficulty. OPI has put together a guide comprising a sanitation checklist and is offering in-salon service scenario pros who will address clients’ frequently asked questions and recommend retail product for use at home. On the other hand, salons and spas are focusing on promoting their carefully curated retail products, which once made for beautiful adornments on display shelves but are now going to garner increased interest from consumers and extra, much-needed income for salons.

Screenshot of The Drop by OPI; Source: https://www.opi.com/blog/support-resources-for-nail-professionals-in-the-covid-19-crisis

Screenshot of The Drop by OPI; Source: https://www.opi.com/blog/support-resources-for-nail-professionals-in-the-covid-19-crisis

While the retail channel had already begun to garner attention among professional nail care marketers as they increased their focus with the expansion of their nail polishes and care product lines in the channel in the last few years, this move is expected to further gain traction in the recent future. Although focus in the past was expansion through brick-and-mortar stores, the current expansion is expected to focus on the e-commerce channel through both the e-commerce platforms of brick-and-mortar stores and standalone e-commerce platforms. The trend mirrors the salon hair care industry, which is strongly adopting the multichannel strategy, with the brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channels growing at 8.6% and 16.0%, respectively, in 2019.

In terms of popularity of services, dipping powders, the fastest-growing segment (+20.7%) in 2019, is expected to continue to witness concerns pertaining to hygiene over their use in salons with multiple clients. As a result, marketers are looking to focus on offering sanitized options so that the popularity of the product and the service isn’t hampered. Marketers such as Kupa are offering disposable dipping trays that can be discarded after every client’s usage.

Disposable Dip Tray from Kupa

Our hot-off-the-press Professional Nail Care: Global Market Brief report provides a comprehensive assessment of the professional nail care market pre- and post-COVID-19, assessing differences in key countries such as Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy Japan, and the United States.

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