Most of the 650,000 outlets that offer professional skin care products in Europe have been closed since mid-March due to the coronavirus pandemic, with no clear indication of when most re–openings will occur. In fact, COVID-19 may mark a permanent closure for many of them, particularly those in the spa channel. For marketers with a digital footprint—be it via their own website or other e-tail channels—the loss will be slightly less impactful.
Previously forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5% through 2024, the European professional skin care market has revised its forecast for the $1.7 billion market due to the pandemic. New forecasts, published by Kline in a special report, indicate a decline of nearly 10% in 2020 as the most–likely outcome, with the best-case scenario reflecting a decline of 5% and the worst-case scenario at a 15% drop. Given the current state of the pandemic, with lockdowns now inching closer toward summer months, our current worst-case scenario may, in fact, become the most-likely scenario.
Forecast for the Impact of COVID-19 on the European Professional Skin Care Market, 2019-2024
E-commerce is the only channel that could see some growth, as consumers who visit professional outlets for basic treatments are expected to switch to a DIY model. Additionally, in the last two years, several leading marketers have already been shifting their focus toward digital platforms by opening e-shops on their brand websites or partnering with e-retailers.
The industry is expected to see the evolution of mobile skin therapists due to the expected closure of several independent beauty institutes and spas. Marketers are likely to support their partner accounts with both financial and marketing help, such as offering higher discounts or reducing the price points of their products.
Beauty institutes and spas will be the most affected due to the closure of several outlets since March 2020. They are likely to re-open in a few countries, such as France and Italy, in May, but the overall frequency of consumer visits will be down. The total cost per service/treatment may increase if partners cannot help fund the hygienic/extra equipment required for safety.
Medical care providers are projected to experience declines. Dispensing physicians in Europe are likely to focus on offering telemedicine and virtual consultations. However, this channel is likely to recover soon, as doctors are expected to remain the first preference for consumers seeking treatments for specific skin concerns compared to other channels such as beauty institutes/spas.
Kline’s scenario forecasts were generated using expert judgment, based on a thorough review of channel performance through the previous recessionary period along with what is currently known about the unfolding pandemic and economic situation. Detailed scenario forecasts and commentary are provided for medical care providers, beauty institutes, spas, salons, and the retail channel in Kline’s Impact of COVID-19 on the Professional Skin Care Market report.