The HDMO Market in 2040: A Long-term Outlook

The HDMO Market in 2040: A Long-term Outlook

Base Year: 2018
Published March 2019
Forecasts to 2040
Regional Coverage: Global

The electrification of commercial vehicles has the prerequisites to undergo exponential growth, mainly driven by market pull, and regulatory support. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) are already used often as commercial fleet vehicles, bringing about the benefits of reduced total cost of ownership, while complying with low emission regulations in place. Although the electrification of commercial fleets has the potential to substantially reduce the consumption of HDMO, the transition to electric and digitalized commercial fleets will also create a host of market opportunities.

This report helps subscribers to:

  • Understand the dynamic of these transformative technologies, the drivers, and barriers to their diffusion, and their impact on HDMO consumption and quality level
  • Understand the state of development for the leading country markets and the scope for penetration of these new technologies
  • Identify and evaluate the emerging market opportunities and challenges
  • Assess the impact on the global HDMO market in terms of future demand at an overall level under various electric vehicle penetration scenarios
  • Understand the approach that leading OEMs are adopting to meet tightening emission-reduction legislation
  • Assess the impact on the HDMO market supply chain, shifts in customer base, and the emergence of new customer groups

Report Contents


Executive Summary

  • An overview of key findings

Country Profiles

  • Detailed profiles of select six HDMO markets include the following information:

Commercial vehicle fleet size and growth

  • Description of commercial vehicle fleet by:
    − Major segment (on-highway, off-highway)
    − Weight class (heavy duty, medium duty, light duty)
    − Application (urban [green cities], regional, long-haul)
    − Leading OEMs, trends in commercial vehicle production, sales by fuel type, and population growth
Table 1: Markets Covered
United States

HDMO market overview

  • HDMO demand by viscosity grades, factory fill/ service fill, quality levels, distribution channels, and end-use industries Electrification of commercial vehicles
  • Current usage of electric and hybrid commercial vehicles
    − New sales of electric commercial vehicles, leading OEMs/brands
  • Electrification drivers: regulations promoting decarbonization of transport, total cost of ownership, government targets, OEM aspirations
  • Electrification barriers: charging infrastructure, price, driving ranges, usage issues, and other techno-commercial considerations

Other technological disruptors

  • Digitalization, telematics

HDMO 2040 market outlook

  • Possible scenarios and impact of long-term HDMO demand
  • Implications for key players in the HDMO industry
  • Appraisal

Scope & Benefits

The HDMO Market in 2040: A Long-term Outlook provides a comprehensive independent appraisal of the evolving HDMO market in context of the electrification of commercial fleets, and the emergence of other transformative forces including telematics, and digitalization, among other. Specifically, the study provides the following:

  • Assessment of the current and projected commercial vehicle fleet in the leading country markets
  • Analysis of commercial vehicle end use industries, and usage characteristics in the leading country markets
  • Current and projected HDMO demand in the leading market
  • Current and projected penetration of electric commercial vehicles and impact on the HDMO market
  • Assessment of the impact of transformative technologies in commercial vehicle fleet operation, and maintenance


This report assists participants in the lubricants market in identifying opportunities and challenges within the HDMO industry. It serves as an invaluable tool in the strategic planning process. Specifically, the report helps subscribers:

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the direct implications of the disrupting technologies that are redefining the HDMO market
  • Asses future overall HDMO demand based on the commercial vehicle fleet growth, penetration by commercial vehicle technology type, changes in oil drain intervals. Although the outlook for each individual viscosity grade and quality level is not provided, they are assessed on a qualitative basis
  • Develop multiple scenarios, and assess the quantitative and structural impact of these on the HDMO market
  • Understand techno-commercial and other market drivers and their impact on HDMO demand outlook
  • Evaluate market opportunities and challenges
  • Design and develop products and market strategies for the emerging HDMO market

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