The Chinese lubricant market post-pandemic has seen a significant shift in the demand for lubricants with 2023 figures at just 80% of the 2019 uptake, largely due to the impact of COVID-19 and the economic transitions shaping the country’s outlook.
Steven Zhang, Director at Kline + Company, emphasized the rapid growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and their influence on the lubricant market. “The penetration of NEVs in new car sales has surged from less than 5% in 2019 to over 33% in 2023. This shift is reshaping the demand for traditional lubricants, particularly in the consumer automotive segment,” said Zhang.
In Kline + Company’s Opportunities in Lubricants: China Market Analysis and Opportunities, the study explores the outlook for China’s lubricant market, projecting that by 2028, the demand will be 96% of what it was in 2023. While the demand for industrial oils is expected to remain stable, the demand for automotive oils is anticipated to continue its decline.
Understanding the economic impact on China’s three main segments: commercial automotive lubricants, consumer automotive lubricants and industrial oils and fluids
In the commercial automotive segment, the study identifies opportunities in long oil drain interval (ODI) engine oils and natural gas engine oils, despite an overall decline in demand. For consumer automotive lubricants, the focus is on ultra-low viscosity products and the further segmentation of fully synthetic oils. The industrial segment highlights growth opportunities in niche markets such as wind power and robotics, although traditional heavy industries face declining demand.
Adapting to changes in the evolving landscape is vital for company success
Zhang noted the importance of adapting to these changes: “The lubricant market in China is undergoing a significant transformation. Companies need to innovate and adapt to the evolving landscape, focusing on sustainability, technology, and market orientation to stay competitive.”
The study covers these changes and more, addressing questions on the recovery of consumer lubricant demand, electrification trends in commercial vehicles, and the most attractive sectors in the industrial segment.
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