Rx-to-OTC Switch Forecasting Model

Kline’s Rx-to-OTC Switch Forecasting Model Found to Be Highly Accurate

Analyzing and forecasting Rx-to-OTC switch sales for over 50 years at Kline, we have recently reviewed how accurate our forecasts have been over time. Over the past 8-10 years, Kline’s syndicated studies on Rx-to-OTC switch have included comprehensive written analyses as well as an Excel-based forecasting model that provides both a percentage probability of switch as well as forecasted OTC brand sales post-switch. Among brands that have been analyzed in Kline’s series of reports on Rx-to-OTC switch are Motrin, Nuprin, Monistat, Aleve, Claritin, Allegra, Zyrtec, Zantac, Pepcid, Nicorette, Nicotrol,
Plan B, Prilosec OTC, Prevacid, Zegerid, Miralax, Alli, Oxytrol for Women, and many others.

The myriad of factors that play into switches including regulatory, product, competitive, and market factors make switch forecasting very challenging. Kline’s long history and extensive experience in analyzing Rx-to-OTC switches along with our unique research methodology of conducting in-depth conversations with knowledgeable stakeholders from all facets of the industry, gives our team an advantage in switch forecasting.

The accuracy analysis found that the sales forecasts generated by Kline’s model have been within 15.0% +/- of true sales estimates overall. Some forecasts have been much closer to actual market performance, as was the case for the low- and non-sedating antihistamines which were within 4.0% of actual sales. However, with brands such as GlaxoSmithKline’s Alli weight loss medication, Kline’s forecasts were off by considerably more because of unforeseen circumstances with difficulties sourcing orlistat, the drug’s active ingredient, and production issues that have recently impacted sales of the brand. Forecasts for other categories have been within 20.0% +/- of actual sales due to private-label variants taking more share from brands than originally expected, as was the case with OTC proton pump inhibitors.

Kline is currently conducting research for the 11th report in our series on Rx-to-OTC switch due to be published in the 1st quarter of 2015. The report, called Rx-to-OTC Switch Pipelines USA: Competitive Assessment, analyzes nearly 30 major pharmaceutical and OTC companies and forecasts likelihood, timing, and sales of switches for each company. This study will be a benchmarking tool for executives responsible for Rx-to-OTC switch or business development and it will help subscribers understand competitive threats and strategies and will be used as a tool to cast a wide net and uncover potential licensing opportunities. The Rx-to-OTC Switch Pipelines USA: Competitive Assessment study will provide subscribers with detailed written profiles of each company as well as access to the forecasting model which will provides future sales forecasts organized by company. To discuss the details, view reports parts or view our other Rx-to OTC switch reports connect with Laura Mahecha who you can meet in person at the Exl Pharma conference “Rx-to-OTC Switch Summit: Assessing the Future of Switches in the U.S. and Beyond” in Philadelphia December 4th and 5th.

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