Rx-to-OTC Switch Forecasts: Market Analysis and Opportunities
Regional Coverage: United States
Published August 2017
Base Year: 2017
Forecasts to 2022
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Published: December 2020
Base Year: 2020
Forecasts through 2026
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This report provides a comprehensive, objective assessment of the Rx-to-OTC switch landscape including forecasts of switches in the United States in existing OTC categories and projections for new OTC categories. The study provides a broad assessment of “switchable” OTC categories, a specific analysis and forecasts for the most-likely switch categories and drugs, and an analysis of regulatory and retail paradigm shifts and implications for future switches.
Scope
- Allergy
- Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)
- Cholesterol
- Erectile dysfunction
- Influenza
- Migraine
- Narcotic overdose antidote
- Oral contraceptives
- Overactive bladder medications (OAB)
- Sleeping aids
- Smoking cessation
- Topical analgesics
Featuring Kline’s FutureView
Switch Forecasting Model
Table of Contents
Introduction
Executive Summary
This section of the report provides:
- Overview of key findings and trends
- Regulatory considerations for switches
- Recent switches
- Switch forecasts
- Competitive landscape
- Conclusion and appraisal
Switch Forecasts by Category
For each of the categories shown in Table 1, the following information is provided:
- Comparative analysis of Rx and OTC markets (where applicable)
- Regulatory considerations
- Safety/efficacy
- Patent status
- Potential nonprescription drugs claims
- Likelihood of switch and expected timing
- OTC sales forecasts
- Expected competitive response from both branded and private-label products
FutureView Forecasting Model
Full subscribers have access to Kline’s proprietary, interactive FutureView forecasting model, which is an Excel-based model accessed online. The model provides Kline’s assumptions about the probability of switch and sales forecasts by brand and therapeutic class. The assumptions in the model can be changed by users to revise sales forecasts or probabilities for classes/drugs included in this analysis or for other classes/drugs not provided.
| Table 1: Categories Analyzed |
| Allergy |
| Benign prostatic hyperplasia |
| Cholesterol |
| Erectile dysfunction |
| Influenza |
| Migraine |
| Narcotic overdose antidote |
| Oral contraceptives |
| Overactive bladder |
| Sleeping aids |
| Smoking cessation |
| Topical analgesics |
Report Benefits
This report examines key issues and implications that switches can have on existing OTC businesses and identifies opportunities for future growth from switches. Assessing the impact of switches is crucial to maximize opportunities, minimize threats, and form successful long-term strategic plans.
- Up-to-date primary research on switches conducted with knowledgeable industry participants
- Casts a wide-net analysis to uncover potential licensing opportunities
- Realistic assessment of regulatory climate and future implications
- An understanding of implications of future switches on existing OTC categories
- Identification of future opportunities by identifying categories with high likelihood of switch, and forecasting sales potential and likely timing
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