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Analyzing and forecasting Rx-to-OTC switch sales for over 50 years at Kline, we have recently reviewed how accurate our forecasts have been over time. Over the past 8-10 years, Kline’s syndicated studies on Rx-to-OTC switch have included comprehensive written analyses as well as an Excel-based forecasting model that provides both a percentage probability of switch
Rx-to-OTC switch brands continue to be major game changers on the OTC market, whether promoting strong gains or causing steep declines. Traditional OTC lines are delivering growth as they have expanded to meet consumer needs with the Centrum (Pfizer) and One-A-Day (Bayer) vitamin lines. Both of these lines using broad reaching marketing campaigns have had success with new product launches.
From 2010 to 2011, the U.S. OTC drug market posted a gain of 2.4% from $20.9 billion in 2010 to $21.4 billion in 2011 at the manufacturers’ level. The fastest growing categories include allergy relief products, which grew 16.3% in 2011 aided by the market launch of Rx-to-OTC switch brand Allegra (Sanofi-Aventis) and the strong
