[TREND 30] Further Shift Toward Biologics
Advancements in biotechnology have made the large-scale development of biological drugs easier and more cost-effective. It is further aided by ever more sophisticated computing, data analytics, and engineering.
The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in the world trying to utilize as many technologies known and available to contain the disease. New drugs that are being developed specifically to target COVID-19 mostly consist of biologics.
Demand estimation for biologic ingredients depends on the type of drug that is successful in treatment. While 2020's demand of ingredients and excipients for biologics is expected to witness a slow growth because of the negative impact of supply chain and production disruptions, the growth potential is high. Considering the research and various clinical trials being carried out to identify a preventative vaccine and/or biologic that can treat the virus, the expected commercialization of drugs that successfully pass phase III/IV is likely between 2022 and 2023. Hence, sudden growth is expected in demand of specialty chemicals in this industry in the event that both mAbs are developed as drugs, and vaccines are developed as prevention.
There will be a growth of 10% to 12% over the next five years, including novel biologics, biosimilars, and bio-betters. The highest growth in terms of the number of drugs is expected for mAbs, with a CAGR of more than 15% over the coming years. The number of biological vaccines and hormones is also expected to grow at strong rates of 8% to 10% and 4% to 7%, respectively. Overall biopharmaceutical chemicals market value is estimated at more than USD 3.0 billion and anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% between 2018 and 2023. This creates a pool of opportunity for the entire value chain of the biopharmaceutical industry, including suppliers of upstream and downstream processing ingredients as well as formulation excipients.
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