The makeup industry is still booming despite inflation, and collective retail sales of eye, face, and lip products are on track to surpass $16.8 billion this year. While the last decade has been characterized by fluctuating performance for color cosmetics, consumers returning to the category and new channels of discovery have allowed makeup marketers to hit their stride once again. In 2022, retail sales for these products rose 13% according to Kline’s Cosmetics & Toiletries USA, and unlike other categories in beauty where consumer demand was relatively unchanged, makeup’s momentous year was driven by more than price hikes.
The virality on TikTok has played a critical role in the resurgence of makeup, creating frenzied demand and capturing new audiences without incurring significant acquisition costs. The platform has been immensely successful for blushers, as it has brought to light viral trends such as “cold girl” and #blushhack which has garnered more than 760M views. The platform has also been essential to emerging brands such as Bobbi Brown’s Jones Road Beauty and her no-makeup makeup, hero product Miracle Balm.
Celebrity influence in the makeup community is still positive, with consumers turning to TikTok content to recreate infamous beauty looks from their beloved idols. Nudestix tapped model and beauty influencer Sofia Richie in October 2022 for the brand’s first-ever Nude Beauty Director role. Recently, the social media personality shared her wedding and honeymoon “Get Ready With Me” videos, all of which featured Nudestix’s iconic Nudies Blush Sticks and acquired upwards of 13M views on TikTok. Outside of social media, the most notable celebrity endorsement in beauty recently is e.l.f. Cosmetics’ partnership with actress Jennifer Coolidge, who first appeared in a commercial for the brand during Super Bowl LVII.
The future of TikTok, however, is wavering as conversation around a potential ban of the platform has resurfaced, cautioning brands to secure backup plans for their digital strategy in efforts to avoid loss of follower counts and revenue. Fortunately, the outlook for makeup’s core categories over the next two years is bright, with lipsticks and glosses showing the strongest growth projections as consumers are expected to turn to low-cost luxuries in a slowing economy.
Kline’s forthcoming Cosmetics & Toiletries USA report provides an overview of key drivers, trends, competition, and relevant product launches across fragrances, hair care, makeup, skin care, and other toiletries. This 48th edition forecasts future market values and consumer demand using Kline’s enhanced predictive analytics tools. The online interactive database is now published, allowing subscribers to analyze sales from various perspectives. The written report will be published next month. To learn more or schedule a demo, please contact us.