Max Marioni
Project Lead, Energy
Trend 1: Synthetics will continue to move mainstream, but the landscape will grow more complex
Synthetics have shifted from a premium niche to the dominant direction of the market. Lower‑viscosity grades continue to migrate rapidly from 5W‑30 toward 0W‑20, 0W‑16, and even 0W‑8, driven by hybridization, OEM requirements, and efficiency goals. This shift is raising technical demands, such as additive chemistry, OEM‑specific approvals, and tighter performance standards, which now define product differentiation.
Transition speed varies by region. Europe and North America are fully embedded in synthetic PCMO, while Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America are accelerating adoption. HDMO is progressing more slowly but following the same trajectory. Industrial sectors are also expanding their synthetic use, including wind‑turbine gear oils, food‑grade lubricants, and emerging niches such as drone applications.
Meaning for 2026: Synthetics are mainstream but not homogeneous. Deeper segmentation, greater OEM influence, and selective premiumization are expected, alongside pockets of commoditization.
Trend 2: Value will rise sharply, while volume remains flat
Global lubricant volume growth remains subdued at <1% per year, yet market value continues to climb 4–5% annually. This gap reflects a structural shift toward high‑performance synthetics, low‑viscosity products, and specialized formulations across automotive and industrial sectors. Electrification, renewable power buildout, and industrial modernization, particularly in high‑growth markets such as India and Indonesia, are reinforcing this value mix.
Meaning for 2026: Growth lies in performance and portfolio mix, not volume. Prioritizing premium synthetics and high‑value specialties will matter more than chasing incremental volume.
Trend 3: Sustainability and electrification will reshape demand in non‑linear ways
Electrification remains a long‑term certainty, but near‑term dynamics are mixed. BEV momentum is slowing in several major markets, while hybrids, especially PHEVs, are accelerating. This shifts lubricant demand rather than eliminating it; hybrid vehicles still rely heavily on advanced synthetics, while EVs create new markets for e‑fluids, thermal‑management fluids, greases, and factory‑fill specialties.
Industrial demand is also changing. EV manufacturing reduces metalworking fluid requirements but expands needs for EV‑specific and electrification‑aligned lubricants. Across all segments, sustainability continues to influence product development, pushing low‑carbon and bio‑based offerings to the forefront.
Meaning for 2026: Electrification is not a single pathway but a branching set of scenarios. Success depends on aligning portfolios to hybrid and EV‑specific opportunities, adapting to new industrial demand patterns, and treating sustainability as a commercial differentiator.
For more insights on 2026 energy trends, explore our Energy Trends series.
Trend 1: Immersion cooling will expand beyond data centers, with power density...
Trend 1: Synthetics will continue to move mainstream, but the landscape will...
Trend 1: Capacity additions will reshape competitiveness, bringing market risk for buyers...
