PARSIPPANY, NJ – November 26, 2020 – Kline’s just published Global Lubricants Market Analysis and Assessment syndicated study finds overall global automotive and industrial lubricants demand reached 40.7 million tonnes in 2019. In early Q2 of 2020, as the COVID-19 (CV-19) pandemic impacted the global economy and country level lockdowns were announced and implemented, we re-aligned our research efforts to assess the impact of CV-19 on the 19 country markets covered in this edition of the Global Lubricants study.

Kline developed a proprietary demand model that divided 2020 into four stages: (1) Pre-crisis, (2) Lockdown, (3) Recovery, (4) Post-crisis. Based on information publicly available at the time, real-time insights from industry experts, and Kline’s analysis, we assessed the impact and duration of the Stage 2 lockdown on all automotive and industrial sectors at the country level, and the pace of recovery/post- crisis to estimate the demand contraction in 2020 against our 2019 market estimates. More importantly, we estimated future growth prospects and opportunities over the study’s two 5-year forecast periods, 2020-2025 and 2026-2030. To get more information about our findings, request access to Kline’s on-demand webinar.

The top five country markets, the United States, China, India, Russia, and Japan, account for 53% of total global lubricant demand in 2019, with the United States and China together accounting for just under 40% of total global demand. These countries are reliable indicators of automotive engine oil viscosity grade evolution, synthetics penetration, and opportunities for all lubricants industry participants. In terms of product supply, Kline’s study finds that the top five lubricants suppliers, Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, Total, and Sinopec, supply 35% of total global lubricants in 2019.

“Our study finds that Shell continues to be the No. 1 overall global supplier of automotive and industrial lubricants for the 14th consecutive year,” notes George Morvey, Industry Manager at Kline.

“Contributing to this significant achievement is Shell’s leadership position in the United States, with a 13% overall market share, due to its strength in the fast lube and other installed service channels in the consumer automotive market segment with its Pennzoil, and its leading position in the commercial segment with its Rotella branded product lines. Moreover, Shell claims the No. 3 position overall in China, following the two domestic suppliers, PetroChina and Sinopec.”

“Fourteen consecutive years as the world’s leading lubricants supplier demonstrates Shell’s unwavering commitment to our customers and the strength of our superior product portfolio,” said Carlos Maurer, Executive Vice President, Global Commercial, Shell. “And we’re not just leading in one sector.  We’re leading globally in the three categories tracked by Kline - cars, trucks and industrial equipment. Lubricants are a growth priority for Shell, which is why as our customers’ needs change, so do we.  In response to the challenges of Covid-19, our lubricants business supplied even more premium products to the market, playing a vital role in keeping the world moving and machinery operating efficiently. Looking ahead, our customers want more products that deliver improved performance with lower emissions, using fewer natural resources and less waste, and you’ll see Shell Lubricants expanding our product portfolio to meet that demand.”

While the United States and China both forecast for no volumetric growth over the forecast period, especially when factoring in the impact of CV-19, there are  lesser volume/developing country markets that are expected to quickly emerge from CV-19 and return to near-normal levels of lubricants demand in 2021 and beyond. One such example is the seventh-largest lubricant consuming country market, Indonesia, which accounted for 2% of global demand and 6% of Asia-Pacific demand in 2019.

Indonesia is forecast to enjoy positive lubricant demand growth in both the automotive and industrial segments with a combined CAGR of 1.8%, 2019-2024, including Kline’s assessment of CV-19 in 2020. In the consumer lubricants segment in the country, fuel stations are an important channel for the sale and installation of engine oil for passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, with all the leading suppliers having a presence in the space. Fuel stations afford suppliers the opportunity to engage with existing and potential customers, expand consumer awareness and loyalty, and test marketing and promotional programs and campaigns. While emerging pre-CV-19, mobile oil change service providers have expanded in Indonesia and are quite common and an acceptable option for routine oil and filter changes for passenger vehicle owners. Opportunities exist for lubricants suppliers to partner with mobile oil change operators seeking alternative venues to communicate their product and brand message and engage with vehicle owners.

Despite the demand disruption and upheaval to traditional and established market conditions and demand trends for finished lubricants post CV-19, Kline’s study finds that industry fundamentals will continue to drive the global market and remain viable, including synthetics penetration, growth in OEM genuine/co-branded products, demand for longer oil drain intervals, penetration of electric vehicles, demand for efficiency and sustainability, evolving manufacturing processes, reduced maintenance and downtime, and rapid acceleration of competitive pressure from all players, especially private-label and distributor house brands, in the global finished lubricants industry.

To learn more about the country market(s) of your interest, subscribe to Kline’s Global Lubricants Market Analysis and Assessment syndicated study. To learn key insights from the study REQUEST RECORDING of our recently held webinar.

About Kline

Kline is a worldwide consulting and research firm dedicated to providing the kind of insight and knowledge that helps companies find a clear path to success. The firm has served the management consulting and market research needs or organizations in the agrochemicals, beauty & personal care, chemicals and materials, energy, and life sciences for over 60 years. For more information, visit www.KlineGroup.com

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For more information contact:
Vera Sandarova
Marketing Communications
Vera.Sandarova@klinegroup.com

PARSIPPANY, NJ – October 9, 2020: Professional hair product sales in June were 98% of the June YAG totals, according to the most recent findings from Kline PRO, Kline’s salon retail products and services database. In fact, shampoos and conditioners were ahead of last year at + 6% and +12%, respectively. This is welcome news for an industry that had a nearly complete shutdown from mid-March through most of May. While it is not business as usual quite yet, the data are revealing the types of products and services that have the best performance compared to pre-COVID times. To explore the industry's brightest spots, DOWNLOAD our just-published infographic.

Hair care products that provide color care benefits have always had the highest category share but saw a bump in the second quarter to 34.0% of the market, peaking in April at 43.7%. Since most salon doors were shuttered at this time, ordering online and curbside pickup from salons became a lifeline. Data shows that kits and multipacks of items for color care surged in this timeframe to 134% over YAG as stockpiling products became a reality.

Regional shifts in product sales are evident, as the operational status of salons was left to state governments. The Midwest region, consisting of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Ohio, and Wisconsin, fared the best of all five regions. Quarterly market share rose from 20.8% YAG to 25.2%. Midwestern salons posted a remarkable performance in June product sales with an increase of almost 26% over last June.

While salon product sales are important, the crux of salons’ survival rests with services. Services comprise 94% of all salon revenues. Concern has been high within the industry regarding what business will be like post-COVID. Will clients return? And if they do, will new regulations and procedures allow salons to operate at the same volume as before? The final answer remains to be seen, but early data shows that clients are willing to begin returning to their stylists in the salon, at least for certain services.

Services are not recovering at the same rate as products. Service revenues were essentially non-existent in April. PRO Pulse: U.S. Independent Salon Market Performance Index shows improvement each month of the quarter, culminating with an index for the quarter of 35.2 compared to Q2 2019. June, however, was very promising at an index of 75.7.

“Services that are rebounding the best are those that are more high-tech and require the expertise of a professional stylist,” says Paula Gottdiner, Kline PRO Project Manager. “Personally, I had no hesitation in returning to my salon for a color service when it re-opened. Evidently, I was not alone in doing so, as hair coloring revenues in June were up nearly 2% over a year ago.”

Other services that saw increases in revenue include straightening/smoothing with a haircut, color and treatment, and thinning hair treatment. As noted by Gottdiner, these are services highly valued by clients and not ones easy to perform as an at-home DIY.

“Based on what we are seeing with Kline PRO, the salon industry is on track to recover,” says Gottdiner. “We are in the midst of processing the transactions from the third quarter and expect to publish the data in the next couple of months. It will be interesting to measure the recovery and be able to analyze both the product and service components of the industry.”

Kline PRO is a comprehensive interactive database that enables users to access the latest performance data on the professional hair care industry in the United States. Robust data and insights on Canada are also planned to roll out in 2021. Based on actual salon transactions from a panel of thousands of salons, it yields category, brand, and product-level sales and service data on a quarterly basis.