Two-wheelers are a popular means of transportation in developing countries because of their low ownership cost and fuel-efficiency. In the long term, two-wheeler market will continue to grow despite a temporary disruption in 2020 amid COVID-19 driven by access to credit and financing. E-commerce and bike taxis will also give a forward push to this market. However, some factors, such as the increasing electric two-wheeler population, restrictions on two-wheeler usage in China, a move toward cars in developing countries as a result of economic growth change the way the market develops.Continue reading
The Middle East region produces almost one-third of global crude oil, with more than 30 million barrels coming from the region per day. Crude oil prices, which plunged from 2014-16 and recently hit lows not seen since the 1998 oil crisis over 20 years ago, have had a significant impact on the region’s economies. Local governments have already implemented diversification plans following the 2014-16 oil crisis and have started to open up their economies to more foreign direct investment (FDI), set up free trade zones and districts, and encourage their manufacturing sectors to grow. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused shutdowns across the region with businesses, schools, and travel being suspended. This unexpected slowdown also halted major events such as the World Cup and new offshore drilling with global partners. While recent events and ongoing socio-political troubles have slowed the region’s growth, it continues to play an important part in global trade, as well as in the finished lubricants market.
The period of rapid two-wheeler population growth appears to be over as the market matures in many countries. This is leading to a moderate growth expectation over the forecast period through 2024, globally. Due to the lack of an efficient public transportation system, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, Asia and Latin America will continue seeing strong growth in motorcycle, moped, and other two-wheeler sales. Owing to their commercial utility, easy manoeuvrability through traffic, and fuel efficiency, they are considered a utilitarian vehicle and continue to appeal to the urban populations. Similar to cars, shared mobility is gaining momentum in the two-wheeler market, although the shift has been slow. Interest in ownership of these vehicles remains strong due to the low cost. To learn more about this resilient market, REGISTER for our free webinar taking place on October 7, 2020.Continue reading
The global general industrial oils (GIOs) and grease market was growing slowly at a 0.2% CAGR from 2014 to 2019. But with the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, the market has been driven from low to negative growth, with some industries not likely to fully recover even by 2024, forecasts Kline’s recently published report, General Industrial Oils and Grease: Global Market Analysis and Opportunities. Kline’s most–likely COVID-19 scenario estimates the 2020 overall decline in GIOs and greases to be around 13%. However, a strong recovery with a CAGR of 2.7% is expected between 2020 and 2024. While North America is projected to see the greater rate of decline, developing markets such as Africa and the Middle East are estimated to grow quickly once they begin to recover from the COVID-19 shutdowns.
After entering the U.S. market for synthetic passenger car motor oil (PCMO) in mid-December 2019 with its own branded full synthetic PCMO, Costco extended its product line into heavy duty motor oil (HDMO) with its Kirkland Signature conventional SAE 15W-40 HDMO in July 2020. Kirkland HDMO meets the current API Service Category of CK-4, which means the product meets OEM specifications for service-fill applications and will not compromise an OEMs’ warranty—provided the end-user follows OEM-recommended oil drain intervals based on operating conditions.
The first hurdle in analyzing the bio-lubricants market is to define bio-lubricants, as it seems that different market participants use the term to mean different things. This tendency is implicitly encouraged by the various government programs that promote the use of bio-lubricants. They tend to focus on one aspect of the product – for example, the U.S. Federal Bio-Preferred program focuses on a bio-lubricant being “bio-sourced”- and is silent on other aspects of the product. Kline’s definition of bio-lubricants includes criteria: biodegradability, bio-sourceability, and non-toxicity. With global demand under 350 kilotonnes, bio-lubricants constitute a small fraction—around 1.6%—of the finished lubricants market globally.
Demand for fuel additives is dependent upon two factors: fuel demand and fuel additive treat rates. All other things being unchanged, fuel additive demand should grow along with the growth of fuel demand. COVID-19 is expected to drive a sharp decline in fuel demand in 2020, which will be reflected in the fuel additives market. While fuel demand should recover from 2021 onwards as the global economy recovers, there may be some long-term changes in fuel consumption patterns. For example, growing penetration of electric vehicles will adversely impact the growth of fuel demand in the medium- to long-term, which, in turn, will impact fuel additive demand in the medium- to long-term.
The Indian lubricants market remains one of the growth prospects in an otherwise flat global market; however, it has its own set of challenges. The year 2019 was significant for the Indian economy—the general election saw the incumbent government getting mandated until 2024, thereby providing political stability. However, the slowdown in the global economy has caught up with the Indian economy, as it consistently registered downward revisions in its economic outlook. This directly impacted automobile production, which contracted by 10%-12%, with the most severe shrinkage observed in commercial vehicles production. This had an immediate impact on first-fill demand; a cascading effect on the service-fill market is anticipated.