The HDMO Market in 2050: A Long-Term Outlook

Regional Coverage: Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, Latin America

Base Year: 2020
Published: Q4 2021
Forecasts to 2040

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Base Year: 2023
To be Published: Q4 2024

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This report will provide a comprehensive independent appraisal of the evolving HDMO market facing ambitious decarbonization targets particularly will quantify the detrimental effect of electrification in commercial vehicles and other carbon-neutral alternatives. Various disrupting forces including digitalization are also analyzed.


  • Assessment of the current and projected commercial vehicle parc in the leading country markets
  • Analysis of commercial vehicle usage characteristics in the leading country markets
  • Evaluation of the emerging market opportunities and challenges
  • Succinct assessment of potential implications of rapid deployment of sustainable non-fossil fuels alternatives to electric vehicles.
  • Analysis of the impact on the HDMO market in terms of future demand under various electrification scenarios
  • Assessment of generated impact on the HDMO market supply chain shifts in customer base, and the emergence of new customer groups
  • Overview of the strategic approach OEMs are adopting to comply with ever-stringent emission targets


Table of Contents


Executive Summary

An overview of the report findings

Country Profiles (see Table 1)

Detailed profiles of eight select HDMO markets will be provided, including the following information

Commercial vehicle fleet size and growth

Description of commercial vehicle fleet by:

  • Major segment (on-highway, off-highway)
  • Weight class (heavy duty, medium duty, light duty)
  • Leading OEMs, trends in commercial vehicle production, sales by fuel type, and population growth

HDMO market overview

  • HDMO demand by various key segments including viscosity grades, factory fill/service fill, and quality levels, among other
Australia ​​India​​
Brazil​​​​​ ​Japan​​​​​
China ​South Korea​​​​
​​​Germany ​United States​​​​​​

Electrification of commercial vehicles

  • Current adoption levels of electric and hybrid powertrains in commercial vehicles
    − New vehicle sales by OEMs
  • Key Electrification drivers: regulations fomenting decarbonization of transport, total cost of ownership, governmental targets, OEM aspirations
  • Electrification barriers: charging infrastructure, price, driving ranges, and other techno-commercial aspects

Other technological disruptors

  • Alternative powertrain technologies, including LPG, CNG, and Green Hydrogen (Fuel Cell Vehicles – FCV, hydrogen-powered ICEs)
  • Digitalization, telematics

HDMO 2050 market outlook

  • Long-term impact on HDMO demand
  • Implications for key players in the HDMO industry
  • Market Appraisal

Subscriber Benefits

This study will assist participants in the lubricants market in identifying opportunities and challenges within the HDMO industry. It will also serve as an invaluable tool in the strategic planning process. Specifically, the report will help subscribers:

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the direct implications of the disrupting technologies that are redefining the HDMO market
  • Develop multiple scenarios and assess the quantitative and structural impact of these electrification scenarios on the HDMO market
  • Assess future HDMO demand based on the commercial vehicle fleet dynamics and fleet operator behavior

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